Repub Congressman Diagnoses GOP Illness, Declares Them Terminal

Tom Davis is one of the few Republican office holders whose strategic analyses I respect as being largely free of ideology.  He's a past chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee, and one of the few Republicans who has voted against his party even when he was pressured to go along with the crowd.  He's not a bipartisan nice guy.  As chair of the Oversight committee, he blocked any serious investigations of the Bush administration, and since Democrats gained control of Congress he's been an obstructionist on many issues that could be politically damaging to the GOP or the Bush administration.  He's an adversary, not someone I like, but as a political strategist, he's someone to take seriously.  

Thus, it's noteworthy that Davis has written a 21 page memo to his colleagues with suggestions for what they must do to prevent disaster.  (Davis himself is not running for reelection.)  The entire memo(pdf) is worth a read.  But there are two pieces worth highlighting.  

I point this out because Obama’s appeal is to the liberal cultural base of the Democratic Party, not to its liberal economic base.  His connection to high income suburbs, the granola belt and college towns, is strong, but his connection to poorer whites, rural voters and other voters who may be susceptible to the Democrats’ message on the economy is not yet demonstrated.  Conservative value voters are a long way from being sold on Obama, even while they feel pinched by global trade, a soft housing market and high gas prices.  But Republicans have to hold these voters to have any chance in 2008.  

The Bush campaign focused like a laser on these voters, whether it was mailing the subscription list to "Guns and Ammo" magazine, to advertising on Christian Radio, to voter registration drives at conservative churches.  In 2004, it was all about "the base’ and driving turnout.

2008 is different.  Demographically, the nation is more diverse and more urbanized than in 2004.  The Iraq war has proved to be the ultimate cultural issue, fueling and giving oxygen to the cultural left, as well as planting doubts in many swing voters minds about the direction of the country.  The economy is softening and gas prices are skyrocketing, giving Obama an opening to court conservative value voters who are hurting economically.  Fortunately, Hillary Clinton has driven a wedge between these competing constituencies, keeping them in play at the Presidential level.  It begs the question of how these voters will vote in Congressional races.

One can take this analysis too far—and I think Davis does—but he's on solid footing in pointing out that the zeal for Obama doesn't emanate from the more economically populist factions within the Democratic primary electorate.  I think it's with populist independents that he needs to do the most immediate work solidifying voters who should be his.  Based on the results in Mississippi, these voters don't appear to be overly hostile to Obama, because using Obama against Travis Childers didn't work.  

However, I think Davis is correct that Hillary Clinton has created a bit of a problem by her divisive attempt to attack Obama as an elitist.  It's damage that can be repaired, but it will be require some serious work by both Hillary and Bill Clinton to fix things up.  

Davis also recognizes that the Republican "brand" has been grievously damaged and in dire need of a retooling:

It is clear from Congressional voting in special elections, in once safe districts in Illinois and Louisiana, that voters at the Congressional level, when given a choice, do not want more of the same.  Our attacks on Democrats for taxes do not ring true.  Our message is stale.  Without a clear change in direction, Congressional Republicans can count on more Louisiana’s and Illinois’s.  If we were a business that had been losing market share, would we simply wait for our competition’s product to blow up?  Or, would we re-tool, innovate and make the appropriate changes.  They don’t like our dog food.  They may not like the Democrat’s either, but for now, and through November, they appear to be buying it.  

My suggestion?  Don’t just put a new wrapper on the product and hire a new sales crew.  Let’s revamp, consistent with our principles and remember that this election is about independent voters.  Even if we get every Republican out to vote, we lose without Independents.  Forget the Democrats.  They’ve been waiting to get back since the Florida recount.  It’s all about the Independents, or we drop to a 170-180 seat permanent minority.  Yes, we’ll be comfortable in our caucus, but we’ll be irrelevant for the next decade.

But here's the problem for Republicans (and the opportunity for Democrats): there's no evidence to suggest that the Republicans will change their approach.  As Davis admitted in an interview:

I mean, things change hard and when your base, by the way, when there is seepage and your brand name is going down and your party registration is going down, the people that are left tend to be the hard core.   And it makes it harder and harder to change.

Since the 1990's, the Republicans have been willing hostages to their base.  Republican office holders are unwilling to go against their base, because they know they will be attacked by their base, and quite possibly targeted by fundie groups and Club for Growth, and most likely draw an extremist primary opponent (like the ones who've defeated Republican incumbent moderates Wayne Gilchrest and Joe Schwarz, and who blocked Davis' own path to the Republican nomination for Senate in Virginia).  

I don't have any sympathy for the Republicans.  But I do believe it must be horrible knowing that if they don't eschew the extreme right positions they've adopted over the years, they will get slaughtered in the general election, but breaking from the extreme right means they will not make it through party primaries.  

It couldn't happen to a more deserving bunch of people.