Yet another reason why leasing more territory for offshore drilling is a ridiculous idea: 30 million acres of land already leased for oil and gas drilling has gone unused.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/...

This is a flood of delicious news. A flood.

Here are the Cook Political Report's latest race ranking changes.  

From "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican":

AL-03, Mike Rogers
CA-46, Dana Rohrabacher
FL-09, Gus Bilirakis
FL-18, Ileana Ros-Lehtinen
ID-01, Bill Sali
IN-03, Mark Souder
IA-04, Tom Latham
KY-02, Ron Lewis (open seat)
MN-02, John Kline
NE-02, Lee Terry
NV-02, Dean Heller
NJ-05, Scott Garrett
NC-10, Patrick McHenry
OH-07, Dave Hobson (open seat)
PA-05, John Peterson (open seat
PA-15, Charlie Dent
TX-07, John Culberson
TX-10, Michael McCaul
VA-05, Virgil Goode
VA-10, Frank Wolf
WY-AL, Barbara Cubin (open seat)

From Likely Republican to Lean Republican:

FL-08, Ric Keller
FL-21, Lincoln Diaz-Balart
PA-03, Phil English
WV-02, Shelley Moore Capito

From Toss Up to Lean Democratic:

NY-13, Vito Fossella (open seat)
NY-25, Jim Walsh (open seat)

From Likely Democratic to Lean Democratic:

PA-11, Paul Kanjorski

Wow.

That's an astonishing number of changes, first of all, but I'm equally amazed by the particular districts on this list. Most of the rating changes involve long-shot flanking races, the kind of races that would never be competitive in normal years, but happen to have unusually strong Democrats running this year, in an unusually favorable climate for Democrats. Some of these districts - like ID-01, IN-03, KY-02, NC-10, and TX-07 - are just wildly Republican, and many of them didn't even feature competitive races in 2006.

Many of those races added to the "Likely Republican" category won't be especially competitive this fall. But some of them will, and a few might even be Democratic pickups.

Even if it's just for this cycle, in the perfect storm of 2008, Democrats are making inroads into areas they have written off for years. The world is grown so good, it seems, that we are making prey where angels have long feared to tread.

HOLY CRAP. The Cook Political Report House Honcho David Wasserman just released his latest House ratings, and he has opened the blue floodgates on 30 House districts. And some of them are HUGE news.

The U.S. jobless report for June is breaking front page news everywhere today.

WASHINGTON - Employers cut payrolls by 62,000 in June, the sixth straight month of nationwide job losses, underscoring the economy’s fragile state.

Of course, that's not news at all to folks in North Carolina's 8th District where we've lost 62,000 jobs ourselves since Robin Hayes took office.

In fact, if there's even anyone in this bellwether District that never saw this recession on the horizon, it's my opponent, Robin Hayes.

Hayes said the national economy is on the rise. "The economy around the country is very, very strong. Growth continues."

Can you even imagine?

MN-Sen: So, Norm Coleman is having a mini-scandal, apparently, involving a sweetheart deal he supposedly got on his Washington apartment.

Long story short: Coleman rents a basement apartment from a friend and Republican operative, Jeff Larson, who owns a townhouse on Capitol Hill, just four short blocks from the Capitol Building. The two of them have a longstanding relationship: Larson's wife works in Coleman's St. Paul office, and Larson's company has done a great deal of work on Coleman's Senate campaigns (earning more than $1.6 million in fees and expenses).

Coleman pays $600 a month in rent, which appears to be almost a nominal agreement. On one occasion, he missed rent payments for two successive months until reporters asked him about it. On another occasion, Larson failed to cash his rent check for three months until reporters asked him about it. Now, this appears to be quite a nice apartment; not only is it a stone's throw from the Capitol, but it's described as being quite lovely inside:

Downstairs, a huge English basement with a media center, office space, gorgeous custom marble and oak bar, plus an airy guest bedroom and bath. (A C of O allows you the flexibility of an income unit).

Simply divine!

Coleman's people claim he is paying market value for the apartment. The Minnesota DFL, however, has looked into the issues, and disagrees.

They note that similar apartments in the neighborhood can rent for nearly three times as much (see here).

English-basement apartments and studios on Capitol Hill comparable to
Coleman's for rent at amounts far in excess of $600 per month. In
addition to the research that it released last Monday, the DFL Party
today released more research showing that rentals of English basements
and small apartments comparable in location, safety and amenity to
Coleman's run from $1,100 to $1,800 per month. One Capitol Hill
one-bedroom English basement is nearly identical to Coleman's in
location and safety, for $1,700; another at $1,475 per month sits on a
block with five times the number of crimes committed in the last year,
including 12 times the number of violent crimes; and another at $1,350 a
month is a mere 625 square feet in size.

As a result, Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington has filed an ethics complaint against Coleman:

CREW’s executive director Melanie Sloan stated, "Few Americans have landlords who sometimes fail to cash their rent checks, ignore unpaid rent, or accept furniture in lieu of rent. That Sen. Coleman has just such a landlord, who also happens to financially benefit from his relationship with the senator creates exactly the sort of appearance of impropriety that undermines the public’s faith in government." Sloan continued, "Senators must abide by the ethics rules at all times, not just when they get caught flouting them."

AK-Sen: Ted Stevens really is losing it. His latest nugget of wisdom: "Chuck Schumer runs the Alaska Democratic Party".

I am not making this up.

The fellow is getting a mite paranoid, methinks.

ID-Sen: Polling for Idaho Senate candidate Larry LaRocco shows his Republican opponent, former Governor and current Lieutenant Governor Jim Risch, under 50% in a matchup against LaRocco and indie Rex Rammell.

Not a terrific poll for LaRocco, but not that bad, either. The poll also indicates that when given basic background information about the candidates on the issues, LaRocco rated a slight edge:

But LaRocco took the lead when respondents heard about Risch and LaRocco's stances the issues and were asked to vote again: LaRocco had 40%, Risch 37%, Rammell 5%, Other 5% and Undecideds dropped to 13%.

I'm unsure LaRocco will actually have the resources to get his message out, but one never knows.

ME-Sen: I'm a native New Englander, and as such, I love nothing so much as eating food from the ocean. So this DSCC Road to Victory video about the plight of Maine lobstermen (due to astronomical fuel prices) makes me cry.

NH-Sen: I wrote yesterday about how medical associations were targeting John Sununu for his vote on the Medicare bill. Well, it seems that one of his staffers actually informed doctors that Sununu would support the bill:

Dr. James Fieseher, a primary care physician in Portsmouth, traveled to Washington, D.C., in May to personally lobby Sununu and Sen. Judd Gregg for support to stop the cut and said a staff member for Sununu said he would support the bill.

"I'm concerned and disappointed," said Fieseher, who added that as Medicare providers keep getting squeezed, it's likely that fewer younger doctors will be able to afford to become primary care physicians like him. "We (doctors) are being hurt really bad by this. ... Our profit margins are already narrow. It won't do anyone any good if we are run out of business."

Also, Sununu was one of those shiny happy people who repeated the GOP myth about Big Bad China drilling off the coast of Florida. Thing is, someone bothered to tell him it was a myth.

So now, Sununu has neatly changed Big Bad China to Big Bad Cuba, and is back to spreading the Great White Lie:

Sigh. Sigh. Double sigh.

House Races

AK-AL: As a 36-year incumbent and former chair of the House Transportation Committee, Don Young has built quite a network of power - and a formidable campaign warchest - over the years.

This is very fortunate, as his legal troubles - and those of his cronies - are mounting, to the point where he is not only forced to lawyer up, but to obtain legal representation for his campaign manager as well. More on this later.

Somewhat fortunately for Young, he picked up the endorsements of the NRA and Mike Huckabee today. In other news, it appears that his primary opponent, Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, has his own problems to worry about. Parnell has been criticized for not issuing a public release on the Supreme Court's Exxon Valdez decision, and it's been murmured that this may be because his firm, Patton Boggs, defended Exxon in the proceedings.

When the Supreme Court’s decision on the Exxon Valdez litigation came out last week—slashing Exxon’s punitive damages to a tenth of the original $5 billion ruling—Alaskan pols were ultra-swift with their press releases condemning the court’s decision. Reporters’ email inboxes were flooded with indignant missives (Mayor Begich’s was titled, "Begich Angered by Exxon Valdez Ruling") from sitting officials, including Alaska’s entire congressional delegation, the governor, and also from the aspiring candidates who are in the thick of their respective campaigns.

The candidates for Alaska’s U.S. House seat were particularly vocal: Democrats Diane Benson and Ethan Berkowitz and Republican Gabrielle LeDoux (as well as Don Young, as part of the delegation’s statement) all denounced the decision (a compilation of the statements is available online at the Daily News’s website at http://community.adn.com/... Conspicuously absent from our inboxes, though, was any sort of message from Lieutenant Governor Sean Parnell, also running for the House seat.

Not that Parnell didn’t rebuke the decision as well, but his statement only appeared on his website (www.parnellforcongress.com), and there were subsequent whispers that Parnell was keeping his opinion on the Exxon decision on the down low, since in 2005 and 2006 Parnell was a partner at Patton Boggs, the international law firm that was representing Exxon in the litigation.

NE-02: I wrote recently on New Nebraska Network's investigation into Lee Terry's record of accomplishing nothing in Congress.

Well, it appears that the pro-Terry folks resemble their remarks, so they've been scrambling to find something, anything, constructive which Lee Terry has done in his time in Congress, and sending it all along to NNN, hoping that someone will buy it. Fortunately, the New Nebraska Network folks aren't suckers. Responding to their claim that

Under legislation introduced by Terry (HR 3117), all such centers must have at least one E85 fuel pump.

NNN does their due diligence, and reports

Terry did not "conceptualize" or "take the lead" on this issue.

The original idea was introduced in the Senate in 2006.

He did not submit it in a committee hearing as an amendment. Rather, Rep's Stupak and Inslee did that in the bill the committee submitted.

The same language was used in bills in the House and Senate, with the language eventually being pulled from a bill introduced by Speaker Nancy Pelosi by the House Rules Committee.

And Terry fought the legislation the entire way.

Ouch.

More bad news for Lee Terry: the Cook Political Report downgraded his race from "Solid Republican" to "Likely Republican".

Hooray for Democrat Jim Esch!

VA-05: While Democrat Tom Perriello has been doing excellent work in the fundraising race, incumbent Republican Virgil Goode has been spreading the Great White Lie.

You remember..."China, Florida, drilling, Cuba, Communists, stupid Democrats won't let us drill offshore".

Sadly, it doesn't appear to be helping him: Cook moved his race to "Likely Republican", too.

We set out yesterday to raise $150,000 for Darcy Burner, taking pressure off her fundraising efforts so she and her family can rebuild their lives. In 24 hours, the netroots have moved past the halfway mark, with $85,000 raised (we started at the $250,000 mark). That's 17 days she can focus on rebuilding rather than fundraising. As Goldy says:

This is more than just money, it is a gift of time and an outpouring of affection that has buoyed Darcy’s spirits just as the full impact of her loss finally started to sink in. The campaign tells me she has canceled her schedule at least through the end of the week and will reevaluate day by day after that.

I'm glad she has cancelled her schedule for at least this week. Let's help give her more time to put the pieces back together.

Race tracker wiki: WA-08

I agree with mcjoan that this wasn't the best compromise Democrats could get.  At the same time, the FISA compromise wasn't worth a quixiotic fight, either.  At the end of the day, below the fold is what this election is about:

George Fearing for Congress
Please subscribe to my diary if you live in Central Washington or follow the race in WA-04.  Thanks!


Soon I'll write in greater detail about why George is such an excellent candidate for Congress, and there are some great diaries already out there about why Richard "Doc" Hastings is as bad as they get, and why it's in the national interest to unseat him.

Keep your eyes posted for some entries from Mr. Fearing himself in the coming weeks.  For now, for the skeptics and the pessimists, have a look at some of the many reasons why this race is VERY competitive -- much more so than Republicans would like to admit.

But trust me.  The Hastings crew is getting nervous.  We've seen folks drive by or even sit in their cars in front of the office, peering in.  They've mentioned us in a fundraising letter.  It's clear that Doc's campaign knows that we will fight for this.  And this year, we can win.

After the jump.

Tomorrow, July 3rd at 5:00 PM Central Donald Betts Jr. will be liveblogging on FutureMajority.com. Betts is running in Kansas' Fourth Congressional District against 7-term incumbent Todd Tiahrt.

This will be the second live-blog from Senator Betts. You can check out his earlier live blog here.

You can also RSVP for the live blog on the Facebook event.

Some background on Senator Betts below the fold.

"Certainly, [US Representative Todd Akin, R-MO] seems as safe as any Republican can be in an otherwise bleak atmosphere for the GOP," writes Deirdre Shesgreen in today's St. Louis Post-Dispatch. "The 2nd Congressional District includes the high-income, reliably Republican suburbs .... Akin won the seat in 2000, squeaking through a five-way GOP primary by 56 votes and then winning easily in the general election. He has coasted to re-election ever since."

Appearances can be deceiving. Todd Akin's seat isn't nearly as "safe" at it looks.

Seattle Times:

Looking into the black, collapsed interior of her home along the shore of Ames Lake on Tuesday, congressional candidate Darcy Burner was matter-of-fact.

"I'd say it's pretty much a total loss, based on the smoldering remains," she said. "We lost stuff. It's just stuff. The boy is fine. The husband is fine."

Burner, her husband and their 5-year-old son were home asleep when the 7 a.m. fire broke out, but they escaped unharmed [...]

Fire investigators said the blaze was caused by a malfunctioning electrical device that was plugged into an outlet in a bedroom, said Sgt. John Urquhart of the King County Sheriff's Office. Burner said a faulty lamp in her son's room apparently was to blame.

Burner said she and her husband, Mike, were awakened Tuesday morning by their son.

"Henry came into our room screaming there was a fire," she said. "I scooped him up and got him out of the house. The fire started in his room. He did everything right."

"Thank goodness for smoke detectors," said Glaser. Investigators believe Henry was awakened when smoke alarms sounded, Glaser said.

I just went and re-checked the smoke detectors in my kids'' room. The thought of a fire starting in their room makes me want to throw up.

Darcy needs time to put her life back together. We're doing our part to make that possible, looking to cover her fundraising goal for the month ourselves.

I'm in for $1,000.

Update:

Update II: HelpDarcy.com

Race tracker wiki: WA-08

NH-Sen: The Concord Monitor analyzes the differences between the 2008 Senate race between Jeanne Shaheen and John Sununu, and their previous match in 2002, when Sununu won a narrow victory.

Shaheen seems to think that the critical factor in the race is Sununu himself, and the record of failure he has compiled in his Senate term.

"This race is going to be about Jeanne Shaheen, but it's going to be about John Sununu," Shaheen, a former three-term Democratic governor, said in a meeting with Monitor editors and reporters last week. "This is about what he's done - or failed to do - over the last six years."

Shaheen chalks her 2002 loss up to "the environment we were in." Asked what's different this time around, Shaheen said: "This time I'm going to win."

Pithy, and accurate, given her substantial polling edge over the incumbent.

"I think this race is about the future of this country and the Senate. John Sununu wasn't running as an incumbent senator in 2002," Shaheen said. "He's running as an incumbent senator now, an incumbent senator who voted with this administration 90 percent of the time and got us to where we are today: with $9 trillion in debt, a war in Iraq with no end, a housing crisis, gas prices that are the highest in history, and no energy plan. . . . We need a dramatic change, and we are not going to get it with somebody who votes with George Bush 90 percent of the time."

Sununu's campaign didn't dispute the 90 percent figure but offered a statistic of its own.

"Senator Sununu has been an independent voice in the Senate and voted with New Hampshire 100 percent of the time," spokeswoman Julie Teer said in a prepared statement.

Sununu's been using that silly line for a while, it seems; it makes Dean Barker at Blue Hampshire chuckle.  

It's settled - I think I can vote for Sununu. He's voted for our state 100% of the time! That's one more time than every time he voted with Mr. Bush! "Statistics" are so much fun!

ME-Sen: Apparently, this is how Susan Collins maintains her popularity in Maine: by concealing her actual record in the Senate from her constituents.

MS-Sen: Our beloved Decider is in Jackson, Mississippi today, holding a high-dollar fundraiser for Roger Wicker. Apparently, despite his party having lost his old seat in Congress in part due to Bush's unpopularity, Wicker is unconcerned about wearing Bush as a millstone around his neck.

"Sen. Roger Wicker is honored to have President Bush to Mississippi to support his campaign," Wicker campaign manager Austin Barbour said in a news release. "President Bush has offered America strong leadership in a unique moment of danger in our history."

So what does Wicker's opponent, former Governor Ronnie Musgrove, have to say about this event?

Musgrove's campaign has called out Wicker for holding a limited-access event instead of participating in a series of several town hall meetings - the first of which Musgrove wanted to have today.

"It's a disservice to Mississippians that Roger Wicker would choose to attend a high-dollar fundraiser rather than participate in a town hall meeting in front of voters," Musgrove campaign spokesman Adam Bozzi said.

MA-Sen: John Kerry is cruising in the Bay State, 58% to 27%, over his Republican opponent Jeff Beatty.

Meanwhile, Barack Obama leads John McCain 53% to 33%.

- Members of the American Medical Association are just beside themselves with rage over several Republican Senators' opposition to the recent Medicare bill.

Medical groups around the country are gearing up to target these bad seeds in several states. In Texas, John Cornyn has already been targeted, while other groups eye John Sununu in New Hampshire, Roger Wicker in Mississippi, and James Inhofe in Oklahoma.

Medical societies in Texas, Mississippi and New Hampshire — states where GOP senators face difficult reelection challenges this year — are taking a hard look at whether to withhold their support for incumbents who voted against the bill on June 26. One state group has already acted and others could follow, given the American Medical Association’s (AMA) vehemence on the vote.  

This could be considered a major screwup for several of these Senators. In Sununu's case:

The New Hampshire group is especially piqued, Jones said, because Sununu personally assured them the cut would be prevented, as did aides to Gregg. "We all felt comfortable with the fact that they said, ‘We understand your concerns and we will not let a cut occur,’ " Jones said.

As for Inhofe, well, he's doing the only thing he knows how to do: blame Democrats.

Tulsa-area doctors are wondering if this might be the first year since 2002 that Congress won't intervene to avoid a cut to Medicare payments to doctors, since lawmakers failed to pass legislation before leaving for their July Fourth recess.

The Bush administration said Monday it will delay Medicare payments to doctors for 10 business days to give Congress time to reach a deal to block the cut.

...

Sen. Jim Inhofe, R-Okla., insisted Senate Democrats were to blame.

"Despite knowing that their bill was doomed from the start, Democrats still refused to allow consideration of a Republican alternative," Inhofe said. "Both bills provide the same update to physicians, a 0.5 percent increase for this year and a 1.1 percent increase for 2009."

Gee, I was under the impression that voting to block the bill was his decision. But that's me.

House Races

NY-13: Due to the rather unbelievable circumstances surrounding this seat - not only the highly publicized demise of Rep. Vito Fossella, but the GOP's quixotic search for a candidate afterwards - CQ Politics has moved their ranking of this seat to "Democrat Favored".

Brooklyn political consultant Gerry O’Brien, who works with clients from both major parties, said Republicans’ recruiting problems all but assured Democrats would win the 13th District in November.

"It’s flabbergasting. That’s the only word I can think of. It is as if they seem intent on serving this seat up to Democrats on a silver platter with chocolate mints around the edge," O’Brien said.

I like chocolate mints. Ours is a good way.

VA-05: Showing surprising strength in a long-shot battle to unseat infamous Republican Virgil Goode, Tom Perriello has brought in an impressive amount of money in the second-quarter period.

Attorney Tom Perriello, the Democratic nominee in Virginia’s 5th district race against Rep. Virgil Goode (R), raised more than $300,000 in the second quarter of the year and will report more than $900,000 in total cash raised for the cycle in his next Federal Election Commission report, according to a news release issued by his campaign this week.

Democrats are starting to believe that Perriello has an outside chance of ousting Goode, a six-term incumbent who has never had to sweat re-election.

In the release, the campaign boasted that Perriello has refused all contributions from corporate political action committees and lobbyists and said that 96 percent of donations have come from individuals.

KY-04: This seat hasn't been on the radar up to this point, and with good reason, but this is a very interesting poll from SUSA, pitting incumbent Geoff Davis against underfunded, no-name Democratic challenger Michael Kelley:

This was one of the hottest races of the cycle in 2006, but turned out to be a real dud in the end. Former Democratic Rep. Ken Lucas had narrowly defeated Davis in 2002, then retired in accordance with his term-limits pledge in 2004. Davis won the seat, beating Democrat Nick Clooney, and Lucas subsequently ran for his old seat again in 2006.

There was a lot of hype around this race, but Davis wound up beating Lucas badly, 52% to 43%.

I seriously doubt there's much chance of a pickup here, but it's nice to see relatively weak reelect numbers even in theoretically safe Republican seats.

MO-06: Sam Graves really is full of it, when it comes to the GOP's Great White Lie regarding offshore drilling.

It’s an urban legend that’s easy to believe for some Americans.

In early June, Vice President Dick Cheney told the U.S. Chamber of Commerce that China was pumping oil from the Gulf of Mexico.

"...George Will pointed out in his column the other day that oil is being drilled right now 60 miles off the coast of Florida," Cheney said. "But we’re not doing it, the Chinese are, in cooperation with the Cuban government. Even the communists have figured out that a good answer to high prices is more supply."

Similar assertions have been made by other elected officials who, like Cheney, support more offshore drilling. They include U.S. representatives Sam Graves and Roy Blunt of Missouri, George Radanovich of California, and John Boehner of Ohio. All are Republicans.

Here’s the problem with their claims: China is not drilling for oil off Cuba, according to independent energy experts. Cheney’s office has since acknowledged this.

According to these stellar GOP representatives, if you repeat lies often enough, they become truth.

Nice to see Graves, in particular, called out by his local paper, though.

Most people know that the cost of prescription drugs is going up, and that the drug companies are not hurting despite most business and industries taking a hit in the recent recession.  We look at the cost in one county, and the causes nationwide.

Guys, as you might've seen, Orange to Blue candidate Darcy Burner lost her house yesterday to a fire. The tragedy has obviously upended her life, and she's struggling right now to put all the pieces back together. As such, she now faces a dilemma -- the more time she dedicates to dealing with her personal affairs, the less time she has to campaign and raise money.

We can't help with the "campaign" side of things, but we can help with the money side of things. Darcy would have to raise about $150,000 in the month of July to keep up with her Republican opponent. Us bloggers are going to try and raise that for her.

Darcy is currently at $250,000 across all of ActBlue. We want to get that to $400,000. A tall order, but no one deserves the respite from the rigors of fundraising more than Darcy.

One last point: Darcy is a huge netroots sensation because she is truly one of us -- a former Microsoft exec who is a geek at heart, and someone who has been with us on the war and FISA since she first started running in 2005. Some politicians can put up a facade or say the right things for the right audience, but there's no faking it when you've just run out of your burning house, seeing all your worldly possessions go up in flames as you frantically try to ensure your family is safe.

Look at the shirt she was wearing:

(Ellen M. Banner / The Seattle Times)

She is family.

I know I promised a lull from the fundraising after the end of the quarter, but these are not normal circumstances. Darcy will be someone who will be there for us when she's in Congress. Now's our chance to be there for her during these horrible, trying times. Let's do what we can to help her out.

Update: Goldy:

[...] that’s XML for “end war.” And the fact that this was the shirt that Darcy was wearing at 7AM when she and her family fled their burning house, tells us in the netroots all we need to know about Darcy Burner [...]

Darcy needs to raise about $150,000 this July to keep pace with Dave Reichert and her own 2006 fundraising, and everyday she takes off makes her campaign budget that much harder to hit. That’s about $5,000 a day.

And that’s why I’m joining with bloggers nationwide to ask our readers to contribute what they can today, to help give Darcy the breathing room she needs to tend to her own affairs without worrying about neglecting her campaign. Every $5,000 increment we raise represents a day that Darcy won’t have to dedicate to her own fundraising efforts. It is a gift more precious than money; it is a gift of time.

Race tracker wiki: WA-08

We told you in April about the latest incarnation of House Republicans' vaunted ROMP program. ROMP stands, amusingly enough, for the "Regain Our Majority Program".

Only thing is, the first installment of ROMP candidates in 2008 didn't really have anything to do with actually regaining the majority. Out of 10 Republicans on the list, seven were incumbents, and exactly one was targeting a Democratic-held seat.

Interesting way of regaining the majority, through incumbent protection.

Well, the GOP's Red Army has done it again. Per GOP leaders Roy Blunt and Eric Cantor, the newest incarnation of ROMP:

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito, WV-02
Rep. Phil English, PA-03
Chris Hackett, PA-10
Rep. Tom Feeney, FL-24
Rep. Lincoln Diaz-Balart, FL-21
Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, FL-25
Steve Stivers, OH-16
Pete Olson, TX-22

Give them credit for positive momentum. In April, ROMP targeted one Democrat, John Yarmuth of Kentucky. Now, at least,two out of the eight names on this list are chasing Democratic-held seats (Nick Lampson in TX-22, and Chris Carney in PA-10).

There's one open-seat candidate here, too, Steve "Window-Shopper" Stivers.

Everybody else is an incumbent, many of them in formerly safe GOP seats (like Feeney, English and the Diaz-Balarts).

It seems rather clear that even with this program, specifically designed for targeting vulnerable Democrats, the GOP is on the defensive, more focused on minimizing losses than, you know, regaining a majority.

Perhaps it's time ROMP was renamed.

Here in Kentucky we have been turning the page and returning to our Democratic roots. We are tired of the failed leadership Kentucky Republicans have provided in the Congress, and our Senate. It all began with Greg Stumbo's exposing of our corrupt former Republican Governor, Ernie Fletcher, the first Republican to hold that post in a generation. From there, our momentum has only increased.

LA-Sen: This race is getting close:

The good news from this poll is Landrieu's surprisingly high favorables, at 61-33,

Only thing is, Kennedy's are even better; 61% favorable, 11% unfavorable.

Now, I kind of doubt Kennedy's favorables could be that good, but nevertheless, that isn't what you want to see from a Republican this year.

McCain has a wide lead over Obama in the state, as one might expect.

ME-Sen: CQ Politics writes on the Senate race in Maine between Susan Collins and Tom Allen, noting that it is still difficult to gauge the chances of a Democratic pickup in Maine.

The incumbent Republican Collins has enjoyed a substantial polling lead since Allen entered the race, but Allen has steadily chipped away at that lead: Rasmussen indicated that a 16-point Collins lead at the beginning of April became a 10-point lead in late May, and their last poll indicated just a seven-point edge for the two-term Senator, with Collins' support dropping below 50% for the first time. From CQ:

The narrowing between candidates shown in these polls is the result of Mainers "hungry for change," according to Andrews, who added, "They know things aren’t going well" in the nation. Expressing an expectation that Illinois Sen. Barack Obama will win the White House as the Democratic presidential nominee, Andrews said Maine voters will understand that he "will need a working majority" in the Senate next year.

Matthew Miller, DSCC communications director, contends that the drop in the Senate race poll margin is "due to voters having started to tune into the race," adding that Allen’s message of tying Collins’ Senate record to Bush "has been taking."

Collins’ side plays down the importance of the Rasmussen numbers, though. "I think it’s a mistake to grab onto the poll and say that it shows movement," said Steve Abbott, campaign manager and former Senate chief of staff for Collins. Abbott said the poll may be right but is "different than everyone else."

Given that Maine regularly is among the leading states in voter turnout in presidential election years, Abbott said there are "definitely national trends, and every state and race has quirks." But he noted the strong proclivity among many Maine voters to perceive themselves as independents, adding, "Waves don’t seem to hit here like elsewhere."

Because both legislators are generally familiar to voters (Allen has represented half the state in Congress since 1997) and enjoy generally favorable ratings, there has not been a lot of eye-catching, dramatic movement in the race, but what movement there has been has been generally favorable for Allen to this point.

Collins will be one of the toughest Republicans on the block to take down this fall, due to her considerable popularity. Allen has proven he's no slouch, and the political environment strongly favors Democratic candidates this year. So while Collins has to be favored in this race, I'd be loath to make any predictions about what may happen over the next four months.

KS-Sen: Preliminary Q2 fundraising numbers in the Kansas Senate Race indicate that Democrat Jim Slattery raised over $500,000 in the quarter, next to $850,000 for incumbent Republican Pat Roberts.

For a Democratic candidate in Kansas, $500K is a pretty good haul for one quarter. Granted, Slattery is still in the hole in terms of cash-on-hand (Roberts has over $3.1 million).

Roberts is already on the air, and has plenty to spend, but Slattery is showing surprising resilience in a difficult red-state battle. I wouldn't be surprised if the national parties wind up spending in Kansas, at least a little bit.

NC-Sen: Solid poll for Elizabeth Dole, whose statewide ad campaign has given her a 15-point edge over Democrat Kay Hagan.

Hagan gets just 52% of the black vote in North Carolina (28% for Dole). We can reasonably expect those numbers to get better for Hagan, which may help close the gap.

TX-Sen: One of "Big Bad John" Cornyn's staffers has been astroturfing several progressive blogs, it seems, including our own.

He has done most of his damage at the excellent Burnt Orange Report, which is logical enough, but has shown up here a few times, as well as at Swing State Project.

This is reminiscent of the 2006 Senate race in New Jersey, when a noted concern troll at progressive blog Blue Jersey was traced back to the campaign of the Republican candidate, Tom Kean Jr., and his spokesperson Jill Hazelbaker (who now does the same job for John McCain).

Why is this significant? From BOR:

You know who we are and who we work for.  You know who the Democratic consultants and staffers that comment on the site are, and who they work for.  Now you know who is the Republican operative, and who he works for.  Keep that in mind every time he leaves comments attacking you for supporting Lt. Col. Rick Noriega.  Keep that in mind every time he takes to the site to spin for Senator John Cornyn.  Keep that in mind when you realize that all of the staffers for Lt. Col. Rick Noriega have disclosed their day jobs, while Senator Cornyn's staffer lurk in the shadows, using age old dirty whisper campaigns in an online forum.

As they note, the Cornyn campaign have commented themselves on the desire for transparency in the past, when a Noriega staffer posed as a blogger earlier this year in an attempt to get a schedule of Cornyn's apearances:

"If you're going to misrepresent yourself, be aware of caller i.d." Walsh said. "I don't think misrepresenting yourself is in line with Texas values. I just find it somewhat ham-handed."

Well.

AL-Sen: Rasmussen's latest poll shows a pretty safe race for Jeff Sessions, with Sessions sporting a 24-point lead over Democrat Vivian Davis Figures, 58% to 34%.

The good news for Figures, such as it is, is that this month's numbers aren't as bad as last month's (when she trailed 62% to 27%. Still, Sessions' strong favorables (68%) in a red state indicate there's not much to see here.

House Races

KY-02: Terrific news from a House race that hasn't been considered top-tier up until this point. SurveyUSA shows State Sen. David Boswell (D) leading State Sen. Brett Guthrie (R) in this open-seat race to fill the seat of the retiring Ron Lewis (R).

Guthrie had a large cash advantage heading into Q2, but there's obviously great potential for Boswell in this race if he managed to pick up his fundraising. I'm eager to see what Boswell brought in in Q2: Guthrie, for his part, raised about $300K for the quarter.

It's a rough, rough district at R+12.9, so a poll like this truly is a pleasant surprise.

NY-26: Here's a triple dose of good news, in the wake of the unfortunate news that Democratic candidate Jack Davis had successfully torpedoed the millionaire's amendment.

Not only has Eric County legislator Kathy Konst dropped out of the Democratic race for the nomination (leaving a three way race between Davis, Jon Powers and Alice Kryzan), but she will instead run against a Republican incumbent for State Senate, where we're just one seat away from a majority.

On top of that, the DCCC has made Jon Powers its newest addition to Red To Blue:

The DCCC announced today that Jon Powers (NY-26) will immediately be added to the Red to Blue program for open seats. Democratic congressional candidates running in open seats earned a spot in the competitive program by establishing significant local support, surpassing demanding fundraising goals and by skillfully showing voters that they stand for change and will represent new priorities.  Powers is one of only 18 candidates in the Red to Blue program for open seats.

"Jon Powers has assembled a strong and dynamic campaign with strong grassroots support, local labor leaders, and all seven Democratic committees," said Chairman Chris Van Hollen.  "Jon Powers will bring the leadership skills he used in Iraq to the issues facing western New York - bringing good paying jobs to the district and fighting to reduce gas prices for middle class families.  The Red to Blue Program will give Jon the financial and structural edge to be even more competitive."

FL-21: It appears that Lincoln Diaz-Balart has been sporting the endorsement of a couple groups that have, in fact, endorsed his opponent, Democrat Raul Martinez.

''I am deeply honored by the broad support my campaign for reelection is receiving from the working men and women of our community,'' he said in a press release, citing backing from unions such as the Fraternal Order of Police and United Teachers of Dade.

But two of the 12 unions on the list -- the Transport Workers Union Local 291 and International Longshoremen's Association Local 1922, both AFL-CIO affiliates -- say they didn't endorse the Republican incumbent.

''Absolutely not,'' transport workers local union president Wessell Clarke said.

Though the transport workers have considered Diaz-Balart ''our friend in Congress for the past 15 years,'' Clarke said, they and the longshoremen's local went along with the Florida AFL-CIO, which voted last week to endorse Diaz-Balart's Democratic rival, former Hialeah Mayor Raul Martinez. The union is also backing two other congressional challengers -- Joe Garcia, who is running against Diaz-Balart's brother, Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, and Annette Taddeo, who is trying to oust Rep. Ileana Ros-Lehtinen.

This is actually sort of understandable. Diaz-Balart hasn't had a tough race in ages, so I imagine he's not used to having any opponent strong enough to get serious union support.

Amazing, what happens when serious candidates start running against long-time incumbents, offering a change to years of demagoguery and ineffective leadership.

PA-06: Unlike the past three cycles, we don't have a top-tier recruit running against Jim Gerlach, but that hardly means Gerlach's out of the woods. Registration numbers are up in the district, and a new Benenson poll indicates that Gerlach could be vulnerable if Democratic candidate Bob Roggio can increase his familiarity to voters:

From RCP:

The problem, writes Roggio pollster Pete Brodnitz, is one of name recognition. Roggio is known by just 10% of district voters, and once respondents hear a positive message about the Democrat, he shoots to a seven-point lead. Of course, campaigns aren't run in a vacuum, and if Gerlach is able to fill Roggio's name identification with negative associations, the Republican could put the campaign away early.

Still, Gerlach isn't in the best shape either. 39% of voters say he's doing an excellent or good job, while 47% say his job performance is only fair or poor. And if President Bush is an issue, Gerlach will be in even worse shape, as only 16% of voters have a favorable view of Bush's job performance, compared with 84% who mark him in the fair or poor categories.

Gerlach has managed just 51% in each of his three House campaigns, barely holding off Lois Murphy in 2004 and 2006. It's quite clear he can be beaten: the question is whether Roggio is the candidate to do it.

CO-04: Marilyn Musgrave somehow has managed to run a series of uncomfortably close races in her political career, despite representing a solidly red district at R+8.5. This probably has something to do with the fact that Musgrave herself is a famously controversial candidate.

She hasn't been heard from very much, on gay rights issues, since 2006, as she nearly lost election that year due to being successfully painted as too extreme even for her conservative district. Musgrave seemingly decided it best to keep a low profile and masquerade as a moderate until the Democratic storm blew over.

Well, she's back to her old tricks.

After avoiding her once-signature issue for most of her third term in Congress, Marilyn Musgrave stepped back into the debate over gay marriage in recent weeks by signing on as a co-sponsor of constitutional amendments to define marriage as between a man and a woman.

"The sponsors of the amendments asked her to be a co-sponsor. The congresswoman supports traditional marriage so she agreed," Musgrave Chief of Staff Guy Short said Monday.

Musgrave introduced constitutional amendments in 2003 and 2006 that defined marriage as between a man and a woman.

Musgrave is opposed by Betsy Markey, a Democrat who is polling favorably next to the three-term incumbent. I can't see how this will help Musgrave, frankly, as I'm pretty sure the voters are concerned more wth gas prices, the economy, the war, and affordable health care than with quixotic attempts to pass a marriage amendment through a Democratic House.

NE-02: As New Nebraska Network notes (alliteration!), Lee Terry is thoroughly useless.

So, from the time Terry took office in January 1999, to the present date, he passed:

1 Bill, renaming a post office.

5 Resolutions, on continuing to observe Veteran's Day on November 11th, naming 2 fellow Republicans to committees, recognizing the Marines of Company M for their 25th Annual Reunion, expressing sympathy to the Omaha mall shooting victims, and expressing sympathy to the Little Sioux tornado victims.

1 Amendment, accelerating adoption of geothermal heat pumps.

The ONE Bill and the ONE Amendment are all that have become actual laws.

Good on ya, Lee.

All I can say is thank you from the bottom of my heart.

This quarter's outpouring of support was overwhelming and humbling. The financial impact of your support was real and incredibly significant. Just as important, however, was the emotional impact. Receiving nearly one thousand contributions in two weeks from every corner of Arizona and our country gives us the emotional strength to work tirelessly between now and Nov. 4.

And we will work tirelessly, because the stakes couldn't be higher. The critical challenges we face demand new leadership in Washington. Only new leadership will see the opportunities those challenges present and seize on those opportunities to build a future for America brighter and more promising than before.